Monday, November 24, 2003

...ALWAYS ON MY MIND

I started drafting a post on the situation in Georgia before matters took a dramatic turn over the weekend.

As of Friday, President Eduard Shevardnadze had upped the war of nerves by announcing he would call for Parliament to sit on Saturday as he had powers to do under the constition. You will recall that parliamentary elections were "spectacularly flawed" according to international monitors.

Despite this, BBC reported:
"Eduard Shevardnadze's party has been confirmed as the winner of Georgia's parliamentary elections amid allegations of vote-rigging."

This is what I was going to say:
The President has called the first sitting of the new Parliament for 22 November (the Constitution says parliament can be invoked if 2/3 of the seats are known - as is the case).

OSCE was about to assist in the second round of elections:
"The President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Bruce George, will arrive in Tbilisi on Friday to lead the OSCE observers for the second round of the parliamentary elections in Georgia, which will take place on Sunday, 23 November."

Then the drama unfurled. Saturday, the opposition led a march on Parliament and forced Shevardnadze to flee under escort of his thuggish advisers and guards.

In the meantime, the Russians through their Foreign Minister acted as go-betweens.

Sunday saw further drama as the President was forced to resign. Was this a coup? Does it matter?

The Donut has blogged before on the situation in one of the top three countries in the world. Shevardnadze lost the plot long ago. The country has ceased to function politically and economically. Whatever might happen or might have happened, there are hard times ahead. Winter is near and Tbilisi faces the daily threat of electricity rationing.

The Washington Post recently opined on the post-election fiasco and Shevardnadze's deal with the despot of Ajara:
"But Mr. Shevardnadze is also under considerable pressure from Aslan Abashidze, the ruler of the region of Ajara, where one of the Russian military bases is located. Mr. Abashidze submitted election results that would have the effect of tripling his party's rightful representation in Parliament; he claimed to have received tens of thousands more votes than there are registered voters in his fiefdom. He has threatened to declare Ajara's independence from Georgia if this fraud is not accepted. Shortly after the election, Mr. Abashidze flew to neighboring Armenia, where he met the Russian defense minister. He then traveled to Moscow, where he met with officials close to President Vladimir Putin. If Mr. Shevardnadze gives in to this thug, he will have his support to remain in office, but he will also probably have fewer means to resist Mr. Putin, who is working assiduously to restore Moscow's imperial influence."

Internal instability from Ajara and elsewhere contributed to the slide to near political anarchy. I doubt that the position in Ajara (let alone Abkhazia and South Ossetia) will make it any easier for Shevardnadze's successor. The Opposition now say that elections for both the President and a newly constituted Parliament will take place in the next few months. That would be good news if there were guarantees that elections would be fair - some of the same systemic problems that marred the last elections would re-occur.

So far no violence. So far no foreign intervention except what seems to have been helpful brokering by Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov.

After the euphoria of the "Velvet Revolution", much needs to be done to ensure that Georgia can function normally politically. The Donut will follow this one.

:: Posted by pete @ 14:18