Friday, November 07, 2003

DEMOCRACY UPDATE

I've been following the events in Georgia over the last week or so, as I have a personal and professional interest. Over the weekend, the small former Soviet republic in the Caucasus held its sixth Parliamentary elections since independence. Things did not go well. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has been monitoring the election and the run-up period. OSCE had several hundred observers in situ on election day. Although better than previous elections, this time around there were still reports of ballot box stuffing, intimidation, unauthorised people hanging around polling stations, lack of privacy when voting and other irregularities.

unathorised person at polliing station

Now President Shevardnadze faces growing unrest. His party has captured 25% of the vote, higher than any other party. But, the main opposition claims ballot rigging and wants Shevardnadze out, even though he has a year or so to go as President. Protestors have taken to the streets, but violence has so far been avoided.

OSCE apart, even the US Embassy has raised concerns. But, what you may wonder will happen if Shevardnadze is forced out? Will the opposition be recognised by the outside world? Is there potential for more conflict in this struggling country? Remember, part of the country - the Abkhazia region - has de facto self government, although still claimed by Georgia. The country borders the volatile regions of North Ossetia and Chechnya. Georgia has slightly better relations with neighbouring Armenia and Azerbaijan, but relations with Russia are frosty. Add into the mix the presence of US troops engaged in flushing out alleged al-Qaida operatives in the north of Georgia.

Its dangerous geographical position aside, Georgia has a multitude of problems, not helped by rampant corruption and lawlessness. Political institutions are not mature, the courts are government controlled and there is no due process. The country is more or less bankrupt and will, in the future, be beholden to western oil companies who are building a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey through Georgia's territory.

Georgia looks to me a ripe candidate for US client state status. Regime change, anyone?

Not looking too promising.

:: Posted by pete @ 17:12