Tuesday, November 25, 2003

MORE ON GEORGIA

Thanks to Ryan for two essential links on the latest position in Georgia - Living with the Caucasians and Cinderella Blogerfeller.

Ryan asks about the connectivitiy between Georgia, Chechnya, the BTC pipeline and the rest of the region. Well, it is a bit complicated but I think it's something like this:

There is a bit of post-Soviet background to bear in mind. The Trans-caucasus has already endured civil and cross border wars in the days after the collapse of the "Evil Empire" (tm). There is still potential for further strife. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not quite the best of friends and I'm sure ruling cliques in both countries are looking warily at their neighbour.

Georgia itself has internal problems. Abhkazia, south Ossetia and Ajara all have degrees of autonomy, recognised or not. As many commentators are saying, Ajara probably holds the key to the success of the Velvet Revolution.

But, there's also the Pansiki Gorge area, allegedly crawling with al-Qaida operatives, Taleban or sympathisers. (The reason why there were US "advisers" staying at my hotel when I was in Tbilisi.)

BTC is vitally important to the economy of the region, but probably more important to the oil and gas companies involved. The route of pipeline has strategic importance as it allows oil to be transported from Azerbaijan and Western Kazakhstan avoiding Iran (at US insistance) and ensuring access to the Mediterranean avoiding the Bosporus (at Turkish insistence, because without the link there will be a huge increase in oil tankers travelling from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and with it a threat of catastrophic accidents in the constrained shipping lanes). Any political destabilsation would be a serious threat to the pipeline. What might that bring?

Added thought: Dont' forget to check the OSCE web site for more news.

:: Posted by pete @ 16:18