Tuesday, October 26, 2004


Over at the Bears Will Attach Campaign Blog...

"It's a knife-storm of Old Testament proportions, and anyone who tells you that they know how which way the hammer's going to come down is either a hustler or a half-wit, but we would put our chips on Kerry today if we were up against the wall, and we are not rich enough to throw money away."

Well, with a week to go until the most important US Presidential Election since, well, 2000 (reason 2000 was important: the winner would decide on the next few Supreme Court nominations, leaning the court either left or right), this half-wit sticks his neck out and goes for Shrub.

The glass is half empty.

The media have been gloriously snatching on to poll data showing it neck-and-neck or slightly in Kerry's favour. I don't know. I'm tempted to lean towards as Shrub landslide - who, after all, votes against a war president (1992, not withstanding). Kerry is too big a Washington man to appeal to Mr and Mrs Middle America. Yet, at least a healthy percentage of the population thinks Shrub is a moron controlled by corporations (yeah, like Kerry isn't).

Bears linked to this nifty Electoral College calculator. In my analysis - which involved sticking pins in a GW effigy - comparing to 2000 - when Gore won and Shrub "won" - Kerry will take back New Hampshire. However, GW "retains" Flaw-da; and, takes New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. Washington and Oregon may still turn red, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt as they can brew decent beer.

This gives a tally of 296-242 to Shrub. Visual evidence below...

If I had a vote, I'd still vote Nader. But, that's another story.

:: Posted by pete @ 13:11